Shadow Economy: Threat or Opportunity for Indonesia's Economy?

As someone involved in finance and taxation, I see the phenomenon of the shadow economy in Indonesia as a complex issue. Economic activities that take place outside government oversight not only pose challenges in fiscal policy but also offer opportunities if managed correctly.

What is the Shadow Economy?

The shadow economy includes various illegal and informal economic activities that are not recorded in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). These activities range from tax evasion to illegal practices such as online gambling, drug trafficking, and smuggling. According to Schneider's (2000) research, the shadow economy significantly contributes to a country's economy despite being officially undetected.

The Indonesian government categorizes the shadow economy into two main forms: tax evasion and illegal activities. Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani, in an interview with CNBC Indonesia, emphasized that this sector requires serious attention to increase state revenue.

Sectors Vulnerable to the Shadow Economy

From my observations, some sectors are more vulnerable to shadow economy practices than others. Online trade, for example, is one of the highest-risk sectors due to the difficulty in fully detecting transactions. Many business operators do not properly record their transactions, creating opportunities for tax evasion.

Additionally, unlicensed freelance work, digital promotion services that are not registered as taxpayers, and the purchase of goods from abroad without customs inspections are all part of the rapidly growing shadow economy. The lack of strict regulations in these sectors worsens the situation.

Shadow Economy: Threat or Opportunity?

With estimates suggesting that the shadow economy contributes around 30%-40% of Indonesia's GDP, there are two main perspectives. From a taxation standpoint, it is clearly a threat as it reduces the potential for state revenue. However, if managed properly, the shadow economy can become a new source of income for the government.

The government can leverage this phenomenon for further research to develop more effective regulations. By understanding the transactions occurring within the shadow economy, tax strategies can be directed more specifically and accurately.

Potential State Revenue from the Shadow Economy

I believe that integrating shadow economy transactions into the taxation system can open up new revenue opportunities for the state. With clearer mapping of these transactions, the government can design tax policies that are appropriate without burdening small businesses.

Data from the Ministry of Finance shows that as of October 31, 2024, tax revenues had reached IDR 1,517.53 trillion or 76.3% of the initial target of IDR 1,988.9 trillion. One contributing factor is the many transactions within the shadow economy that have yet to be fully monitored.

Government Strategies for Addressing the Shadow Economy

To tackle this challenge, the government is formulating tax strategies for shadow economy activities. One step already taken is tax reform through Law Number 7 of 2021 on the Harmonization of Tax Regulations (UU HPP), which includes linking the National Identification Number (NIK) with the Taxpayer Identification Number (NPWP).

However, there is still no specific regulation that comprehensively governs the shadow economy. The government may consider implementing low tax rates for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to encourage them to transition into the formal economy. Additionally, incentives such as simplified licensing and business development support could be effective strategies.

Mitigating the Impact of New Regulations

In implementing new regulations, it is crucial for the government to ensure that policies do not negatively impact small and micro enterprises. Mitigation measures such as phased tax incentives, direct assistance for small businesses during the transition period, and the use of technology to simplify tax administration must be carefully considered.

Strict regulations without proper mitigation strategies could lead to increased unemployment due to small businesses being forced to shut down. Therefore, balancing tax optimization with the sustainability of micro and small enterprises should be a top priority in fiscal policy.

Conclusion

The shadow economy in Indonesia presents both challenges and opportunities for national fiscal policy. With clearer regulations, the right strategies, and attractive incentives for business operators, informal economic activities can be minimized without causing significant negative impacts on the economy.

The government is expected to design policies that not only increase tax compliance but also support the growth of MSMEs, which are the backbone of the national economy. With a balanced approach, the shadow economy can be transformed into a sector that is more integrated into the formal economic system, benefiting both the state and society at large.